What is groupthink?

A destructive product of the desire for group harmony

captured exiles during the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon where the desire for group harmony and cohesion leads to irrational decision-making. Group members prioritize maintaining unity and consensus over critically evaluating alternative viewpoints and considering different courses of action. The term was coined by Irving Janis, a Yale psychology professor and expert in group dynamics and decision-making.

Groupthink has been a cause of numerous historical blunders, including the Attack on Pearl Harbor, the Challenger disaster, the Watergate scandal, and the 2008 real estate crash. 

The quintessential example of groupthink is the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion. Despite extensive deliberation involving learned advisors including Robert McNamara, Robert Kennedy, Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., and Allen Dulles, the decision was ill-conceived and disastrous. The CIA and U.S. President John F. Kennedy foolishly thought that an invasion by a small band of lightly armed exiles would lead to a popular overthrowing of Fidel Castro. The Cuban military handily defeated the invasion in a day, and the victory bolstered Castro's popularity and regime and strengthened Cuba’s ties with the Soviet Union. 

Kennedy afterward said, “There were fifty or so of us, presumably the most experienced and smartest people we could get. But five minutes after it began to fall in, we all looked at each other and asked, ‘How could we have been so stupid?’” 

It was the Bay of Pigs debacle that led to Janis’ research. He wanted to discover the psychological mechanisms behind such catastrophic decisions among intelligent individuals. He identified eight characteristics of groupthink: 

• The illusion of invulnerability: Group members perceive their decisions as flawless and immune to failure. They often think they are smarter and more talented than others.

• Collective rationalization: Warning signs and contrary evidence are ignored or downplayed. Before the Challenger launch, expert warnings that specific parts of the shuttle would not work in the cold weather and that the launch should be delayed until it was warmer were dismissed.

• Belief in the group’s moral superiority. The group considers itself and anything it does morally just, leading to self-righteous arrogance and dismissal of contrary opinions. Causes seen as morally justified can lead to unethical “the ends justify the means” behavior including law-breaking.

• Stereotyping outsiders: People and groups outside the group are often cartoonized as ignorant and morally corrupt. Outside opinions are thus rotely dismissed. This isolation from outside views and information creates a dangerous echo chamber.

• Pressure on dissenters to conform: Those expressing dissent face coercion to conform and keep contrary opinions to themselves. 

• Self-censorship: A product of the pressure against dissent and the desire for group harmony, concerns are withheld. Though some of Kennedy’s advisors believed the mission might fail, they did not voice their concerns. Schlesinger speculated that if even one of the advisors objected, Kennedy would have aborted the mission.

• An illusion of unanimity: The absence of dissenting voices creates a false belief that there is unanimous agreement. See my earlier post on the spiral of silence.

• Information gatekeepers: Some group members act as gatekeepers and censors to shield the group from conflicting information. Top leaders may not be given important information. With the Challenger, the warnings were not forwarded to top decision-makers.

Janis identified other factors that contribute to groupthink. These include strong group identity and homogeneity, and a charismatic leader who promotes conformity. During times of perceived crisis or urgency, groupthink tendencies intensify. For public relations reasons, leaders of the Challenger pushed against any delays. Early in his administration and with questions about his leadership abilities, Kennedy was dead set on proving he was successful at fighting communism.

Groupthink can be prevented by understanding what it is and the tendency for groups to fall into it. Open discussions and information sharing among members should be encouraged, members should be diverse to allow different perspectives, the group should include contrarians and devil’s advocates who question the dominant ideas, and input from outside the group should be sought. There should be decision-making procedures in place to ensure these.